Thursday, March 14, 2013

EXTENDED! Carlos Gomez

By the Brewers. Three years $28.3MM

After coming to the Milwaukee Brewers in the trade that sent J.J. Hardy to the Minnesota Twins, Carlos Gomez endured two seasons in a Brewer's uniform that saw his potential untapped.  He was identified by his flailing swing, low OBP and apparent insistence on swinging at everything in sight.  Then 2012 happened, and Gomez quietly put everything together.  Carlos Gomez was platooning in center field with Nyjer Morgan at the start of the 2012 season, but after Morgan's productivity fell off a cliff, the emerging Gomez was given essentially a full-time position and center.  Carlos Gomez awarded the Brewers for their faith by doubling many of his offense of numbers.  While he still has a way to go in terms of plate discipline, the still young Gomez finding his stroke at age 27 gives the Brewers a lot to be confident about.

There is obviously an implicit risk in extending a player after that player only puts up one year of notable production, but $28.3MM dollars could prove to be a bargain if the toolsy Carlos Gomez continues to improve.  The faith that he will in fact improve over the course of his deal is why the Brewers scrapped their initial one-year $4MM deal, opting instead to buy out three of his free agent years that will cover him over the ages that many players reach their peak.  B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn both signed enormous contracts this offseason that would have been unaffordable by Brewers' standards.  In terms of offense of productivity both of those players were about on par with what Gomez did in 2012.

Assuming Carlos Gomez can stay relatively healthy and avoid injuring himself on wild plays, this deal will be considered a very team-friendly.  It would help Gomez' next contract out substantially if you could learn how to get on base and utilize speed, but his power has become an attribute that can no longer be ignored.  If Carlos Gomez can maintain the arc of his productivity, it will not be a surprise whatsoever to see him as an All Star center fielder.  Using the logic that he can only improve over the course of his peak years, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 30/30 and Gold Glove season at least once over the course of this contract.

Related Reading
Dark Horse: Carlos Gomez

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Offseason Review: The Minnesota Twins

New Twin, the right handed Vance Worley, figures to
be a major contributor to the Twins rebuilding process
After years of sustained Rays-like success on a small to medium sized budget, the Twins collapsed inward on themselves like a dying star.  After dominating their division in 2010 and finishing six games ahead of the Chicago White Sox, the Twins fell to a 63-99 record in 2011.  The end result was a last place finish that was repeated in 2012.  Fortunately for Twins fans, the front office isn't known for patience in the face of mediocrity, and have shifted in to full gear this offseason.  The Twins can't realistically hope to compete in 2013, so while the moves they have made have pro-actively targeted their weakest points (namely pitching), they have largely flown under the radar.  When examining signings and acquisitions pulled off by Terry Ryan this offseason, it's easy to see that his eye was set on looking to the future, not clinging on to the past.

Two consecutive dismal seasons made it obvious that the Twins needed help.  The biggest drought of talent lied in the pitching department, which was met with two patchwork pieces in the arms of Kevin Correia (two years, $10MM) and Mike Pelfrey (one year, $4MM). Neither Correia or Big Pelf are aces who will drastically shift gears, but both pitchers can be looked at as restoration projects capable of performing above being lackluster, and both of them are capable of sticking around if and when the Twins find themselves back in the sphere of relevancy.  The most substantial ground gained in the pitching department was acquired via the trade of two Twins outfielders.  Denard Span was traded in late November to the Nationals for excellent young pitching prospect Alex Meyer, and Ben Revere was sent to Philadelphia in exchange for prospect Trevor May and right-hander Vance Worley, who's being heralded by many as the potential future ace of the Twins.

With the pitching much improved and the focus pragmatically set on future seasons, the Twins inarguably emerge as a winner in terms of offseason strategy.  While Minnesota will almost inevitably be looking up at the Tigers in 2013, they do benefit from what is considered by many as a pretty weak division.  It would be wise for teams like the Tigers to acknowledge their position at the top, and upstart seems like the Kansas City Royals to acknowledge there fragility when considering a farm system as formidable as Minnesota's.  The Twins are managing themselves out of the muck, and doing so with impressive efficiency.  It's hard to imagine them anywhere but in last place in their division in 2013, but I wouldn't expect their recent struggles to haunt them too far beyond that.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Offseason Review: The Seattle Mariners

Seattle's new designated hitter Kendrys Morales
These poor guys.  The Seattle Mariner's have been trying for the past couple seasons to make a splash but have come up pretty much empty.  Safeco Field is an absolute cavern, and consequently a deterrent to free agent sluggers like Prince Fielder or Josh Hamilton, both of whom were courted by Seattle but ended up signing elsewhere.  This offseason they couldn't even bring in Justin Upton via trade even after the Diamondbacks agreed to terms that would ship the slugging outfielder to Seattle for a bundle of premium prospects, including excellent pitching prospect Taijuan Walker.  Not to be discouraged, the Mariners still acquired the services of Michael Morse, Kendrys Morales and a rebuilding project in Jason Bay in hopes of adding some much needed pop to the lineup.  

Seattle's General Manager Jack Zduriencik did flex some of the Mariners spending power by extending their homegrown ace Felix Hernandez through 2019 for $175MM dollars, officially making him the highest paid right handed pitcher in baseball history. This move was criticized by many around the baseball community, but if you consider what the price of premium pitching is, and where it is going, I think you can find a logic in this sign.  First off, there are few better players in baseball that combine age and quality as perfectly as Felix Hernandez.  Secondly, he's a homegrown talent which makes him a perfect candidate to be a player to build around.  Finally, the Mariners farm system is loaded with excellent young arms like Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton who can take away invaluable mentorship from King Felix.

The M's are building in to something formidable, and doing so in timely fashion.  The Rangers appear to be on the decline, and there is only so much time before the Angels age and overspending catches up with them.  The most difficult thing that Seattle has to do with manage their own impatience.  By rejecting the trade to the Mariners, Justin Upton may have saved Jack Zduriencik's job.  The Mariners have their ace and they have their cornerstone, now all they have to do is wait for their young talent to develop and then strike.  It's pretty much a guarantee that Seattle won't see the postseason in 2013, but if they can keep it together for a couple more years, their history of mediocrity will be a thing of the past.

Monday, March 4, 2013

Desperation in Pinstripes: What the Yankees Need to do Now.

Curtis Granderson's broken forearm could also be the camel's broken back.
Last year the Yankees didn't quite have the cool and confident look most fans associate them with.  In fact had it not been for Derek Jeter playing out of his mind, Hiroki Kuroda playing beyond his years and the absolute dominance of C.C. Sabathia and Rafael Soriano, the Yanks likely wouldn't have made it in to October.  The Yankees 2012 season ended unceremoniously, with a four game sweep in the ALCS at the hands of the Detroit Tigers.  Now it's 2013 and the Yankees have made no moves to become younger or stronger.  Making matters worse is their almost ambitious lack of depth, an issue that's gravity was made abundantly clear with the injury of Curtis Granderson.  If Brian Cashman isn't panicking about the 2013 season, he should be.

The state of the AL East is no longer what it was, a battle between Bronx and Boston while three other teams scramble for the crumbs.  The Orioles shocked everyone with a wild card appearance, the Toronto went full force in to the offseason acquiring half of the Marlins and 2012 Cy Young award winner R.A. Dickey from the Mets, and the Rays have carved out their own reputation as a team that seems to constantly be able to compete for the top.  As the teams so used to the basement start scratching their way to the penthouse, the Yankees are eroding, and fast.  Even with a decent farm system and a juggernaut budget matched only by maybe the Dodgers, the Yankees are looking dismal.  This is a reality that Yankees fans are not used to, and given the resources they have to work with, it's not one they are going to find excusable either.

Given the rickety situation the Yankees find themselves entering the 2013 season, it seems reasonable to consider whatever happens a wash.  Even if New York makes the playoffs, which is possible given their lineup, strife awaits them entering the 2013/2014 offseason. Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettite are likely candidates for retirement, with team captain Derek Jeter not too far behind. Robinson Cano is all-but-guaranteed to test free agency, and the usually unmatched Yankees budget may have contention in a rebuilding Cubs team and a Dodgers team who isn't afraid to spend like crazy.  The Yankees need to use their position as one of the few teams who can spend on risky contracts and sign Cano to a statement-making signing, or trade him for everything they can get.  There isn't anyone else who's young enough and good enough to build around, and the Yanks inactivity has put them in a downward trajectory that needs to be righted.  The Yank's future as a competitive entity in baseball, and Brian Cashman's future as the General Manager of an MLB team, rests heavily on the back of their MVP-caliber second basemen.

Friday, March 1, 2013

Offseason Review: The Texas Rangers

Does veteran switch hitter Lance Berkman have what it takes
to fill Josh Hamilton's shoes?  Spoiler Alert: No.
Few teams that have as much money as the Rangers do, have had as much recent success as the Rangers have had and preside over a farm system as talented as the Rangers farm system is, emerge from an offseason a notably worse team than they were the year prior.  It would make sense that a team that had such a frustrating collapse, followed by a one-game elimination from the playoffs at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles would want to do something to ensure another return to the World Series.  Apparently this train of thought isn't weighing to heavily on the minds of the Texas Rangers front office.

The Rangers were very inactive in 2013, even after being unable to retain Josh Hamilton or sign Zack Greinke.  One of the more substantial moves made by Texas is the signing of Lance Berkman, a veteran slugger who was on the verge of retirement after injuries kept him out of almost all of the 2012 season.  Another, slightly more sensible signing is of the durable backstop A.J. Pierzynski, who won the AL Silver Slugger award for catchers after putting up a career high 27 home runs in 2012.  While Pierzynski is a likely candidate to add pop to a lineup, and while both of these one-year contracts are low-risk, odds and age wouldn't suggest that these moves are going to be enough to fill the void left by Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli.  What makes the situation look worse for the Rangers is not who they've signed, but who they haven't.  After waiting on the free agent market late in to the offseason, Michael Bourn was signed to the Indians despite the fact that he was a premium free agent outfielder who's lethal speed could have played well in Rangers Park.  Zack Greinke, this years uncontested best free agent pitcher, actually gave the Rangers a chance to beat the Dodgers offer, but Texas didn't want to budge on offering the former Cy Young winner an opt-out option after three years.

Despite how easy it is to criticize the Rangers for their inactivity, the reality of the situation that they are still a pretty brutal team that's definitely not beyond contending.  The Athletics won the AL West amidst pretty flukey circumstances in 2012 and aren't likely to repeat, and while the Angels have bolstered their lineup with the addition of former Ranger Josh Hamilton, they are relying on a lot of things meshing in order for their superstar laden lineup to live up to it's full potential.  Further increasing the Rangers chances of returning to the postseason is the addition of the Astros, who are going to be Major League Baseball's punching bag for the next several seasons.  Furthermore, their farm system is absolutely loaded.  If the Rangers do happen to find themselves in the hunt, they have a ton of talent that's either major league ready or close to it.  The talent they have that isn't ready to contribute directly to the Rangers in the bigs could be used as a trade chip to real in some big names on the block come July.

Veteran backstop A.J. Pierzynski hopes to retain the power
he found in 2012 in his new stadium.
Assuming the Rangers can move past the loss of Josh Hamilton's presence at the plate and Michael Young's presence in the clubhouse, they still have the potential to be very good.  Rangers fans may have just cause in being upset over the Rangers inactivity, as the addition of a player of Zack Greinke's caliber would have preserved their status as "dominant" as opposed to "very good", but there should by no means be a doom and gloom feeling in Arlington.  Whether the Texas Rangers make it to the postseason or not, it will be determined by a very close margin.  Worst case scenario for Texas: injuries and hesitation in the postseason leading up to 2013 cost them a playoff appearance this season, but up-and-coming talent and a flexible ownership group retain competitiveness for many seasons to come.  Best case scenario: another run at the World Series is a legitimate possibility, and while one slugger has defected to the division rival Angels, an all around solid lineup perseveres and finally gets the Rangers a ring.  Either way, it will be an exciting season in Arlington.

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Dark Horse: Brandon Morrow


After three relatively mediocre seasons on an underperforming Blue Jay's team, posting no lower than a 4.39 ERA, Brandon Morrow had flashes of brilliance amidst an injury plagued 2012 campaign.  By season's end, Morrow pitched 124 and 2/3rds innings and posted 103 K's with a 2.96 ERA and a 10-7 record.  

Now it's 2013, and the team that hasn't seen the playoffs since 1993 is poised to end their decade-long postseason drought with a bang.  Brandon Morrow is no longer part of a flailing rotation after Alex Anthopoulos made major moves that include acquiring Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson from the Marlins and 2012 NL Cy Young R.A. Dickey from the Mets.  Not only do these moves bolster and help repair a previously unreliable rotation, but they provide a veteran presence that can help mentor young pitchers like Morrow.  Additionally, Morrow won't be playing on a team that isn't going anywhere.  The initiative of meaningful competition could logically push Morrow to strive even harder to win.  Assuming Morrow can keep is oblique healthy and keep is K rate up, he will be geared up to complete the break out season that 2012 should have been for him .

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Offseason Review: The Oakland Athletics

Newly acquired Oakland backstop John Jaso will provide
a good hitting presence for Oakland.
Last years signing of Yoenis Cespedes by the Athletics both surprised and drew skepticism from many people, myself included.  The Athletics hadn't been expected to be anything special in 2012, as one of their division rivals (the Rangers) had made it to the World Series the year prior and another (the Angels) had made a huge move in signing Albert Pujols, arguably the best player in baseball at the time.  As it turns out, the A's ended up winning the AL West and made it to the 5th game of the ALDS before getting eliminated by the Tigers.  The result was a shift from an offseason strategy focusing on rebuilding, to one focused on sustaining success.
Hiroyuki Nakajima is just thrilled to be on the Athletics
The Oakland A's, synonymous with the Moneyball concept, clearly weren't going to go out and sign a player like Zack Greinke or Josh Hamilton, so the moves had to be strategic from an economic and baseball standpoint.  Earlier in the offseason, Oakland made moves to acquire outfielder Chris Young from the Diamondbacks and re-sign veteran RHP Bartolo Colon, who was putting up a good season in 2012 for Oakland before getting caught using performance enhancing drugs.  Later on the A's shored up some loose ends like acquiring shortstop Jed Lowrie from the Astros to play utility and platoon the newly signed Japanese import Hiroyuki Nakajima, and trading for good-hitting catcher John Jaso, who was acquired in the three-team trade that sent Mike Morse to Seattle.

While these frugal moves may effectively improve Oakland, it seems probably that a repeat is unlikely.  It may seem unduly cynical to be skeptical of a team's chances when they are fresh off of a division championship, but that championship can be accredited more on happenstance then Billy Beane's strategic prowess.  The Angels, acting completely the opposite of Oakland's stingy nature, signed 2010 MVP Josh Hamilton to an enormous five year contract.  The Rangers fall from the top was due to an unexpected collapse that was in no way predicated on the A's budget.  It's strictly an issue of opinion, but much like the Brewers and Orioles, teams carrying the burden of a small budget do, from time to time, need to stray from there usual spending habits in order to sustain their success.

So with the postseason officially over now that the first spring training game has completed, I can say that I think the Athletics had a just OK postseason.  There are plenty of good players (Sean Burnett and Dan Haren for example) who signed extremely team-friendly contracts, so affordability is not an argument.  Time will tell if the A's will see the postseason again in 2013, but I wouldn't count on it.

Friday, February 22, 2013

Offseason Review: the Houston Astros

From riches to rags: Chris Carter was traded from the 2013
AL West champs to the inevitably doomed Astros
There are plenty of scandals and controversies talked about in the baseball world.  Steroids, the one game playoffs, the Hall of Fame and so on.  The Houston Astros may have set a precedent by being the first team ever to catch flack for intentionally being bad. After trading Jed Lowrie to the A's for a set of prospects and DH/1B Chris Carter, the Astros total salary shrank to just over $14.5MM dollars, which for comparison's sake is $2.5MM less than Derek Jeter will make in 2013.  Suffice to say the expectations for the Astros first year as an american league team are dismal.

That being said, the overhaul needed for the Astros to find their way back in to relevance needed to be so thorough that the front office essentially needed to dismantle and rebuild their whole lineup and rotation in piecemeal fashion.  2013 is essentially locked down as awful for Houston, and that's ok.  The Astros got the first overall pick in 2012, will again in 2013 and if all goes as expected this season, they will take the first pick in 2014 as well.  Who does this remind you of? How long ago was it that the Washington Nationals were considered a joke?  Keeping that logic in mind, the Astros are doing what they need to do.  It's going to be ugly, but it's going to help.

Dark Horse: Carlos Gomez


Once considered a five-tool player and hot prospect for the New York Mets, Carlos Gomez became expendable when the Twins opted to trade Johan Santana. Gomez played two seasons with the Twins, exhibiting flashes of power and defensive excellence, but the emergence of Denard Span found Gomez again on the trading block.  Shortly after the conclusion of the 2009 season Gomez was traded to Milwaukee Brewers for shortstop J.J. Hardy.  Despite his unbelievable speed and excellent defensive prowess, Gomez' struggles with plate discipline made him difficult to keep in the lineup.

During the 2012 season Norichika Aoki became the Brewers full-time right fielder and Gomez' platoon parter Nyjer Morgan had a steep drop in production.  This set of circumstances finally allowed Gomez a full-time position in center, where he was primed to flourish.  The season ended with Carlos Gomez posting a .260/.305/.463 line with a career high in stolen bases with 37 and home runs with 19, doubling his previous career high.  Carlos Gomez seems to be putting it all together just in time to enter his walk year; and with a locked down full-time position in Milwaukee it will be interesting to see what kind of money he's trying to earn next year.

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Offseason Review: The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Does having Josh Hamilton make the Angels the most
intimidating team in baseball right now?
After last years crazy spending spree and late season acquisition of 2009 Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke didn't yield even a playoff berth, the Angels decided that the best course of action was not to switch gears, but to pile it on.  On December 13th the Angels came out of nowhere to sign Josh Hamilton to a 5-year $125MM deal.  This move effectively makes Los Angeles not only easily the most potent offensive team in their division, but arguably in baseball, behind perhaps the Detroit Tigers.  It also takes Josh Hamilton out of the lineup for the division rival Texas Rangers and reunites him with former Ranger C.J. Wilson, who lives a sober lifestyle, which gives Hamilton some of the company and support he needs to succeed. The move to sign Hamilton doesn't insure the Angels for anything, however.  While Hamilton has proven year in and year out that his presence at the plate is nothing to be trifled with, he has also proven to be less than durable. Looking at his last four seasons could give an Angels fan something to be worried about.

Games Played
2012: 148
2011: 121
2010: 133
2009: 89

Add five years on to that logic and you can consider any investment a gamble, let alone a $125MM one.  Still, assuming Hamilton will be mostly healthy and putting him in the same lineup as Albert Pujols and phenom Mike Trout is going to be terrifying for anyone who has the misfortune of pitching to them.

Joe Blanton takes his talents to Angel Stadium in 2013
Hamilton wasn't the only move by the Angels this offseason.  After letting Dan Haren walk (which, in my opinion was a dumb move) and trading Ervin Santana to the Royals, the Angels needed to revamp their rotation. They traded good young closer Jordan Walden to the Braves for righty Tommy Hanson. Not needing anyone else to DH or play first, the Angels traded Kendrys Morales to the Mariners for southpaw Jason Vargas on December 19th. Also added by way of free agency is veteran righty Joe Blanton who figures to be the four or five guy depending on where Vargas slots in.  The bullpen also got a huge boost with the additions of LHP Sean Burnett and righty Ryan Madson, who missed all of 2012 with Tommy John surgery, but was lights out as a closer for the Phillies in 2011.

All these moves combined make the Angels almost look like a "new look" team, and if everything flows together they have the possibility to win it all.  That being said, it's important to be critical and look at their faults.  Other than Jered Weaver they don't have any bonafide, game-changing pitching. Players like Vargas and Blanton have a strong history of being durable workhorses, but they also both host career ERA's above four.  The offense obviously has the ability to carry with it crushing potency; but it's important for the Angels to remember the age, injury and ego have derailed teams in the past.  If everyone can stay healthy, humble and focused the Angels are a sure-shot for the playoffs. That being said, if big heads and old bodies get in the way manager Mike Scioscia will be looking for a job.

Dark Horse: Jordan Pacheco

This is a new segment of the Codger where I hope to shine some light on some players who aren't necessarily getting the attention I think they deserve.  "Dark Horse" articles will basically be Short write-ups on players like Jordan Pacheco or Brandon Morrow, who have high ceilings and impressive numbers but are overshadowed by flashier players.


The young and versatile Pacheco
In the midst of the Rockies dismal 2012 campaign, the media focus was largely for Colorado's team was largely on the injured Tulowitzki and the revolutionary but largely ineffective pitching strategy being employed by Rockies management.  In the background, 27 year old Jordan Pacheco put up huge numbers.  A lot of eyes were focused on young players like Bryce Harper and Mike Trout putting up absolutely monstrous numbers, leaving Pacheco in a realm of relative anonymity.  Without the incentives of a hope for the postseason or the limelight, Jordan Pacheco hit .309, finishing in the top five of the NL batting race and becoming the first NL rookie to do so since 1974.  What's more is that Pacheco is an extremely versatile infielder.  Aside from being a serviceable at first and third, he's also working to develop as a catcher.  If Jordan Pacheco can work on getting on base just a bit more, I believe he has All Star potential.

TRADED! Mike Carp

To the Red Sox for a PTBNL
After being made expendable via the Michael Morse acquistion, the Mariner's shipped Mike Carp off to Boston.  Carp posted a .255/.327/.413 line over four seasons with the Seattle Mariners, hitting 18 home runs in just over 600 plate appearances.  While the Boston Red Sox have relatively steep depth at first base, this acquisition makes sense for them.  First off, while Carp's numbers are modest, he has proven especially effective against left handed pitching, hitting a solid .300.  Secondly, Carp was acquired for very little.  The Red Sox can obviously afford to eat his contract if he tanks, and any sort of prospect that could be acquired for Carp is almost guaranteed to have little Major League potential.

Finally, and perhaps most interestingly for the rest of baseball, acquiring Mike Carp makes other Sox players expendable.  That relative interest I mentioned in Carp earlier in the article, belongs to teams like the Astros, Brewers and Twins; which suggests that teams are looking for a good bench bat or first basemen.  The Red Sox signed Lyle Overbay only a few weeks ago in hopes of securing some first base/DH security, but with Carp joining the team Overbay may become disposable.  The Red Sox, recognizing these teams desire for first basemen, could ask a higher-than-regular piece for a player like Overbay.  The Brewers recently lost Mat Gamel to a torn ACL and are waiting for Corey Hart to return from surgery, which makes them a hot target.  The Crew targeted Overbay before he agreed to terms with Boston, but he opted for the American League team so as to get more at bats via the designated hitter role.  With Gamel out, Milwaukee could reasonably be in a position of relative desperation and be forced to send a low-level prospect out in exchange for Overbay's season, effectively paying a price for their own inability to pull the trigger when he was a free agent. 

Monday, February 18, 2013

Gamel Out for 2013 and the Brewers Without a Paddle

This poor guy...
There is "risky"; an adjective used to describe someone gambling something they rely on in order to attain a high reward, and then there is short-sighted, and that's what the Brewers front office is. Mat Gamel's re-torn ACL spells the end of his 2013 season, which hasn't even started yet. Most teams would be panicking if they lost their projected opening day first basemen about four and a half weeks before opening day, and Milwaukee has lost both of theirs, and still nothing.  

I can't understand where it's coming from, but some how the Brewers front office are keeping their cool in the face of their own ineptitude.  If you think I'm wrong, let's take a second to examine the alternatives to Gamel.

1). Corey Hart
Hart isn't technically a replacement considering Gamel was his backup, but since he's injured too let's start here. After spending the majority of his major career in right field, Hart took over first base in 2012 after Gamel's first ACL tear put him out for the remainder of the season. Hart was injured this offseason (something that's becoming an alarming theme for him) and needed arthroscopic surgery effectively disabling him for 3-4 months.  More alarming than Hart's less-than-durable reputation is the fact that second opinion Hart pursued in hopes of revealing a less serious injury actually resulted in a call for season-ending microfracture surgery.  While Hart appears ahead of schedule in terms of healing, he still runs the risk of carrying a hidden, serious injury; and the Brewers still don't have a legitimate first basemen in case that happens.

2.) Taylor Green
.184/.265/.340.  What else do I need to say? This guy has had plenty of opportunities (117 plate appearances in 2012) to flash what he could be in the majors the way that he did in the minors but it just didn't look put together at all.  Even at his best I don't see Green coming close to filling in 
Gamel's shoes, let alone Hart's.

3.) Bobby Crosby
The 2004 AL Rookie Of The Year hasn't played Major League Baseball since 2010. The reason? After his rookie campaign (which by ROY standards was a modest one) he declined steeply and was eventually deemed unworthy of a sign until the Brewers inked a minor league deal with him this offseason. Decent bench presence? Sure, but not an every day MLB player. If you're tempted to use the ROY accolade in his defense at all, I am gonna play the Chris Coghlan card.

4.) Hunter Morris
2012 Southern League MVP Hunter Morris has had approximately zero big league plate appearances.  While his development is impressive, it indicates next to nothing about his readiness to play in the bigs.  Even suggesting that Morris could substitute as an every day first basemen for as long as it takes for Hart to get healthy completely ignores the history of prospects who are rushed to the majors.  This doesn't take in to account the fact that it's pretty asinine of a team to start the arbitration clock before necessary. Best case scenario: Morris comes up and surprises everyone and we have a slightly more fun first basemen to watch for a month. The worst?  He rushes to be major league ready and we waste really good potential, all because we don't have a back up.

5.) Alex Gonzalez or Martin Maldonado
The reason I'm bracketing these two together is that they are both big league players who are ready to play on opening day, but not first basemen.  The argument could be made that Maldonado would be a good first basemen because he's had a very small history with that position at a big league level. It could also be argued that Gonzalez may be a good fit their because he's an aging shortstop with a big body who could quickly learn and even potentially thrive at first.  I'm going to go ahead and make the argument that either call is a totally stupid idea.  Building depth in one department creates a void in the other. Our lack of depth at short is exactly WHY we re-signed Gonzalez. 

Realistically, that's it, that's what Milwaukee's working with.  Why didn't the Brewers make moves to provide legitimate depth? I can't answer that question. It would be one thing if Adam Dunn and Prince Fielder were the only two free agent first basemen on the market, then the logic would lay in finance. That is not the case here. Casey Kotchman just signed a minor league deal with the Marlins, Lyle Overbay was wooed by the Red Sox after Milwaukee put in a weak offer for him, and perhaps most ridiculously is that the Brewers let Travis Ishikawa walk after being a reliable guy off the bench last year. These are NOT moves that would break the bank, but they are moves that allow a team to stay afloat in case the inevitable happens and a player gets hurt.  This is a very rough way to start a season.

Offseason Review: The San Diego Padres

Chase Headley: Future team Captain?
The Padres are doing exactly what they need to do, which is to say "absolutely nothing."  San Diego is well aware of the fact that they aren't really in a position to contend in the NL West right now, so they are biding their time. Spare re-signing Jason Marquis and bringing in veteran righty Freddy Garcia, there hasn't been much at all coming out of the Padres camp.  Internally, they have been smart. Bud Black has had relative success considering the relatively modest talent he's had to work with, so his options were picked up through 2015.

One important development is San Diego's interest in extending third basemen Chase Headley. Headley put up numbers that threw him in to the back end of the MVP discussion in 2012 and has the youth and reputation to repeat those numbers for several more years.  In an era of baseball where even lower budget teams are doing what they can to retain their homegrown stars (ie: the Rays extending Evan Longoria) extending Headley may be a good idea.  If he sustains his efforts he'll be an above average starting third basemen, but if he continues to improve he'll be bordering on superstar status.

Other than that, the Pads have been quiet, and reasonably so. San Francisco just won the World Series and Los Angeles is baring their gold plated fangs, so the theme at Petco Park is "rebuild, rebuild, rebuild."  Anything else would be unreasonable. The Padres are going to finish second last in their division, but several games ahead of the miserable Rockies.

Friday, February 15, 2013

Offseason Review: The Colorado Rockies

New Rockies Manager Walt Weiss
Know how a team hasn't had a very substantial offseason? When you look at my reviews of that team and see a guy like Walt Weiss heading up the page. I'm really not sure where the Rockies are headed or trying to head. Last year was a disaster, finishing third worst in all of Major League Baseball with a 64-98 record, largely thanks to injuries and zero sustainable pitching.  

Sunday, February 10, 2013

EXTENDED! Felix Hernandez

By the Seattle Mariners for five years and $135.5MM
The "official" confirmation isn't quite out yet, but all signs are pointing to the fact that the 2010 AL Cy Young award winner for the Mariners will be staying in Seattle for a very long time.  Felix Hernandez, unquestionably Seattle's best and brightest talent and debatably one of the two three pitchers in baseball,  added five years on to the two years remaining in his current contract.  The move is a polarizing one, as the Mariners are not expected to contend in the brutal AL West for years, but I believe that Jack Zduriencik pulled a smart string with this move. If this offseason has proven anything it's that premium pitching in free agency has a huge price, and it's only going up.

Just because the Mariners are struggling now doesn't mean they will for the next seven years, and what's a better piece to build a team around than a young, bonafide ace?  Players like Mike Zunino and Taijuan Walker aren't too far away from being major league ready, and players like Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak are still young enough to develop in to substantial players.  Middle and small market teams like the Seattle Mariners require a lot of patience to develop in to legitimate contenders, especially when they are facing divisional adversaries as consistently strong as the Rangers or Angels.  A huge sign like this is an indication that the Mariners have a ton of faith in their ace and their up and coming young talent, and a move like that deserves praise.

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Offseason Review: The Arizona Diamondbacks

King Grit himself, manager Kirk Gibson
After winning the NL West in 2011 the Diamondbacks followed up with a disappointing .500 season in 2012, finishing at exactly 81-81.  Restless and aggravated with their inability to repeat their success; they engaged in possibly the busiest offseason of all teams in baseball, completely overhauling their lineup.  In an effort to rebuild not only their roster, but their entire image as a team, manager Kirk Gibson and general manager Kevin Towers went as far as to unload their young superstar Justin Upton for the "gritty" Martin Prado, as well as prospects.  The acquisition and unloading of players doesn't even come close to ending at Upton.  2010 All-Star outfielder Chris Young was traded off, as were third basemen Chris Johnson and Ryan Wheeler and excellent young pitching prospect Trevor Bauer.  In exchange for the above mentioned players; the Diamondbacks acquired shortstops Didi Gregorius and Cliff Pennington, as well as former closer Heath Bell and young pitcher Randall Delgado.  Even more talent was tacked on to the loaded Diamondbacks roster by way of free agency.  Cody Ross, Brandon McCarthy, Eric Hinske and more will all be wearing Arizona's colors in 2013.

So what does this mean? You'd think rapid-fire moves like Arizona is making would have some sort of discernible logic to it, but then things like the Justin Upton trade occur and make you question exactly where this team is going.  It's granted that after running his name through the rumor mill for more than a year that Justin Upton needed to be moved; but if a team is trying to win now by way of mass acquisition then why are they even discussing moving talent with such enormous potential as Upton's in the first place?  The apparent logic in the Diamondbacks front office rests on an intangible, and that is "grit".  Apparently players like Justin Upton and Trevor Bauer don't carry the gritty, dirty style of play that players like Martin Prado and Cliff Pennington do.  My tone is less based on bitter sarcasm and more on utter confusion. I can't manifest a logical scenario in my head that make a controlled contract of a fan favorite, major talent like Upton's a commodity.

Kevin Towers:
Fickle and restless maniac or strategic mastermind?
The D-Backs are in a division with last years World Series champion Giants and a new look Dodgers team that is striking a legitimate fear in every other team's heart, so some manic behavior isn't surprising.  The most befuddling element is that, despite the whirlwind activity on behalf of the Diamondbacks, I'm not sure they are any better than they were last year.  Trading Justin Upton to acquire Martin Prado and some promising but not fully developed talent doesn't exactly compute to definite winning, especially given their immediate competition. Still, I generally like how Towers manages the Diamondbacks roster, and sensible or not, players like Delgado and Gregorius are exciting and promising adds. I don't think the D-Backs make the playoffs in 2013, but they are also not to be dismissed.

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

TRADED! Jed Lowrie

To the Athletics with RHP Fernando Rodriguez
 for Chris Carter, Brad Peacock and prospects.
Fresh off of an unexpected playoff rearing 2012 season, the A's have been uncharacteristically busy building a competitive team this winter.  Former Astros shortstop Jed Lowrie figures to be the last addition in a long line of additions, which include the trading of shortstop Cliff Pennington AND the signing of Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima.  With the signing of Nakajima, Jed Lowrie doesn't figure to be an everyday player.  A's GM Billy Beane; who's usually prone to keeping his moves close to his chest, proclaimed to reporters that this is likely the last major move for the A's this offseason, and that the Athletics goal is to build a team who is capable of winning now.

Oakland unloaded quite a substantial bundle in order to acquire Lowrie's services.  First baseman and DH Chris Carter, one of the more powerful bats for the A's last season, will move to Houston.  Also joining the newly AL West Astros is starting pitcher Brad Peacock and catching prospect Max Stassi.  Peacock showed flashes of talent in 2011 and became a key piece in the trade that sent Gio Gonzalez to Washington, but struggled at Triple-A Sacramento posting a 6.09 ERA.  The trade makes sense for both teams with the A's trying to repeat last season's success and the Astros needing a complete rebuild, but I think Houston came out on top.

Jed Lowrie will by no means be a bad addition to the Oakland lineup. He is a proven major leaguer who will show some much needed infield versatility; with the ability to play second, short or third. That all being said, Chris Carter was one of the few power bats in Oakland, and he's still young enough to develop in to something substantial. Stassi and Peacock are prospects so their development and ceiling is always in question, but for a pretty decent utility guy and a not very good reliever, prospects of their caliber are a lot to sacrifice.  If Oakland can beat the gauntlet that is the AL West again and make it in to the 2013 postseason, this move will pay off. Time will tell.

Saturday, February 2, 2013

Offseason Review: The Los Angeles Dodgers

New Dodger and Major Leaguer, South Korean
LHP Ryu Hyun-Jin
The Dodgers are without a doubt in win now, next year, and for the next several years mode.  The additions of LHP Ryu Hyun-Jin, a 7x KBO all-star, and 2009 AL Cy Young RHP Zack Greinke add extremely formidable depth to an already deadly rotation that now contains eight viable candidates for starting.  The re-signing of Brandon League to a very expensive three-year $22.5MM deal provides more late inning armor to a fully loaded bullpen. All of this set up to buoy last year's late season acquisition of Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Nick Punto and Josh Beckett, perennial MVP candidate Matt Kemp and the rest of the diva heavy Dodgers in to a championship contending team for the next several years. But will it work?

The four above mentioned players were all shipped to Los Angeles from an equally formidable looking Boston Red Sox team who were picked by many (myself included) to win a ring in 2012. Frustration with management and a general lack of team chemistry were largely to blame for Boston's inadequacy in 2012 and subsequent dispersal of major talent.  The Dodgers new ownership, the Magic Johnson Group, are hoping to turn their $2B investment in to a winning dynamic using many of the same discarded pieces Boston couldn't cohesively mesh.  There is with out any doubt that the Dodgers are officially contenders, but don't mark them down as surefire favorites yet.

Greinke switches Los Angeles team to become the
highest paid right handed pitcher in history.
Los Angeles needs to recognize a few things in order to live up to their potential.  First off, they are in the same division as the 2012 and 2010 World Series champion San Francisco Giants. The Giants have been victorious despite doing almost the opposite of what the new Dodgers are doing. Homegrown talent, modest acquisitions, not having a million superstars and still flourishing. While the Dodgers do have players worthy of enormous ego, management better hope that ego can stay reined in enough to keep a team dynamic in tact. They also have to contend with the upstart Diamondbacks and dark horse Padres within their own division, so the road ahead could become bumpy if things go awry. That all being said, we are talking about professional athletes who have been trained to compete their entire lives. If things go as smoothly as expected, Vin Scully will be narrating a Dodger team deep in to the playoffs.

SIGNED! Manny Parra

To the Reds for $1MM
The once promising Brewers prospect Manny Parra will be staying in the NL Central in 2013 after signing a one year deal with the Cincinnati Reds today.  The 30 year old southpaw wore out the patience of Milwaukee fans and management alike after never really seeming to be able to perform consistently under pressure. Parra's troubles in the clutch paired with a bit of a history of injury made him an expendable part of the Brewer's slash and burn approach to bullpen refurbishment this offseason. The low-risk contract the Reds signed with Parra makes him a logical addition to their bullpen. He has experience pitching within Cincinnati's division and can spot start in a pinch. If the change of scenery helps Parra find his groove he'll be a solid add for the Reds.

Friday, February 1, 2013

SIGNED! Lyle Overbay

To the Red Sox on a minor league deal.
Usually I don't write on minor league deals, but Overbay's impact in the Boston lineup could be a pivotal one.  Given the alarming injury discovered during Mike Napoli's contract-dampening physical, having first base depth on the bench is more necessity than luxury. Napoli's ailments aside; at age 37 the team's DH David Ortiz is no spring chicken, Overbay is a more than serviceable back up in case Big Papi needs a day or two of rest. Worst case scenario, Overbay's deal will be a low-risk contract that doesn't pan out to anything significant; but if I had to guess, an American League team that has plenty of veteran players will bring Overbay's bat to Fenway more than a few times this season.

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

SIGNED! Kelly Shoppach

To the Mariners. One year for $1.5MM
The Mariners took a hit offensively when they dealt catcher John Jaso to the A's in part of the three team trade that brought Michael Morse to Seattle. The signing of Kelly Shoppach positions him as a viable catching option in case Jesus Montero (arguably a natural DH) proves himself unable or unready to perform full time catching duties. Shoppach will be reuniting with manager Eric Wedge who he played for during his time with the Cleveland Indians. The Mariners also signed Ronny Paulino to a minor league contract as depth move in light of the Jaso trade.

Offseason Review: The San Francisco Giants

Manager Bruce Bochy is building a hall of fame
worthy resume in San Francisco.
After a team wins the World Series for the second time in three seasons, you can pretty well assume that they have a roster that they are confident in. The San Francisco Giants responded to their World Series ring by being relatively quiet on the free agent front. In fact, the only additions to the San Francisco roster are veteran reliever Scott Proctor who pitched in Japan in 2012 and Andres Torres who has been a Giant from 2009-2011 before being traded to the Mets in December of 2011. Other than that the only offseason strategy was re-signing many of the free agents who made their championship series possible. NLCS MVP Marco Scutaro, Jeremy Affeldt and Angel Pagan were all awarded for their efforts with large contracts keeping them in San Francisco for the next few seasons.

Marco Scutaro, acquired from the Rockies,
quickly became a force for the Giants.
It might be easy to see what's happening with the NL West and Los Angeles' attempt to crush their division and say that the Giants need to follow suit and make more drastic moves, but that would be drastically underestimating the tremendous feat that is accomplishing two world championship's in three years.  Effective team chemistry and a management staff that's a proven recipe for victory shouldn't be altered drastically, no matter who finds themselves on the free agent market. The Dodgers are attempting to take the Giants crown by way of mass acquisition of major talent, whereas the key to the Giants consistent success has been subtlety and solidity. There are no blatant weak spots in the Giants front office (with the exception of 2011's incredibly short sighted trade of Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran) lineup, rotation or bullpen.

Rookie of the Year
MVP
Two World Series Rings
Very Kind Smile
It's not as if the Giants front office hasn't had some difficult decisions to make. All of the players re-signed with the Giants are of veteran status and largely without an all-star pedigree. This reality makes the prospect of injury or decline a very real possibility. The Giants also assessed Sergio Romo's fantastic season as leverage enough to part ways with (inexplicable) fan favorite Brian Wilson after his second Tommy John surgery. The Giants won the World Series with an MVP catcher, a top five pitcher, extremely modest offense, and an ace in serious decline after two time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum posted a 5.18 ERA with a 10-15 record. Despite adversity and quiet aspects of their play, the Giants seems to have found a recipe for consistent contention that they are careful not to tamper with. Expect them to contend in the fierce NL West again in 2013.

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

SIGNED! Alex Gonzalez

One year with the Brewers for $1.5MM guaranteed
and $1MM in incentives

Veteran shortstop Alex Gonzalez will re-join the Milwaukee Brewers in 2013.  Alex Gonzalez had a promising start to his 2012 campaign posting a .259/.326/.457 line in 24 games before a severe knee injury ended his season.  According to Brewers GM Doug Melvin, Gonzalez will serve primarily off of the bench or platooning with young shortstop Jean Segura who was acquired in last years Zack Greinke trade. Gonzalez is a solid addition to the Brewers lineup, who desperately needed some proven players for their bench to help support and nurture a largely very young Milwaukee lineup. The Milwaukee Brewers are looking to add further veteran presence depth, including perhaps reuniting the Brewers with former fan favorite Lyle Overbay.

Thursday, January 24, 2013

SIGNED! Shaun Marcum

To the Mets, one year.
The details are not yet finalized, but Shaun Marcum looks all but confirmed to be a New York Met next year pending his physical. Marcum was a quality pitcher for the Brewers the last couple of seasons when he was healthy, posting a 3.70 ERA over 21 starts. Marcum's health has been spotty throughout much of his career, missing chunks of 2012 with an elbow issue and the entire 2009 season after undergoing elbow reconstruction surgery.  Assuming he passes the physical he'll be a very serviceable addition to the Mets rotation which also includes Johan Santana, Jonathon Niese, Matt Harvey and Dillon Gee. As the Mets would have to pull out some pretty miraculous stops to contend in 2013, Marcum also becomes a credible trade chip to a contending club come mid-season.

TRADED! Justin Upton

To the Braves with Chris Johnson for five players.
I'm glad that a mutually beneficial Justin Upton trade happened because I was beginning to think it was impossible. The Diamondbacks acquire third basemen Martin Prado, right handed pitcher Randall Delgado, shortstop prospect Nick Ahmed, minor league first basemen Brandon Drury and another right handed prospect in Zeke Spruill in exchange for Justin Upton and Chris Johnson. Justin will be joining his older brother B.J. in the Braves outfield that also contains the slugger Jason Heyward, providing quite a formidable core of young starters who project to be good for a long time.

Justin Upton had previously been "traded" to the Seattle Mariners for a huge package headlined by excellent pitching prospect Taijuan Walker. Upton rejected this trade as per the limited no-trade clause in his contract, and in my opinion saved Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik's job by doing so. Upton is by no means anything besides a very good player, but their is a lot of hype in his name. His defense is at best slightly above average, and while his offensive numbers suggest the potential of superstar status, they aren't definite. His stats took a bit of a dive from his 2011 to 2012 campaigns, devolving from a .281/.369/.529 line to a .280/.355/.430 line.  At 25 years of age wavering numbers are no necessary cause for immediate alarm; but they do make players like Randall Delgado, who is older and has a lower ceiling, more of an appropriate trade target than Seattle's Walker.

As soon as news of Upton's trade and subsequent rejection-of-trade to the Mariners broke, it pretty much became necessity to move him. There was probably no better place for the former Diamondback to land than Turner Field. The team is young and competitive and it's been described by both brothers as a "dream come true" to be on the same team. I think the Braves got the better deal in the situation, adding a mix of youth and experience to an already exciting team. The D-Backs let Upton go for a good, not great package, and did so to build a team of "gritty" players. I think intangibles like that are totally inane, and I don't see why a "gritty" Cody Ross is going to be better than Justin Upton, but I'll save that critique for the Diamondbacks offseason review. I don't think this trade will put the Braves on the Nationals level, but it will make them that much more of a brutal contender.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

SIGNED! Scott Hairston

Two years  and up to $6MM to the Cubs.
Scott Hairston is going to be a North Sider for the next two years. A solid addition to the roster, Journeyman Hairston joins a relatively crowded Cubs left field, but will be a good addition to a lineup that's comparably weak against left handed pitching. Hairston will likely platoon with fellow newcomer Nate Schierholtz who's numbers against righties parallell Hairston's offensive work against southpaws (.867 OPS in 2012). I view the addition of Scott Hairston as a logical move for a team that's conceding they won't win in the coming season. Solid presence, bargain price and capable of being a solid trade chip.

Offseason Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

The past few years, the Pirates have started their seasons with such tenacity that even the slothiest, drunken Milwaukee homer has had to concede that they don't look like the pitiful and hapless bunch of dopes they were only a few years ago. In 2012 they took the first place slot in the NL Central and took everyones attention as a potentially very exciting dark horse candidate. Then July happened and everything fell apart. The mix of young undeveloped talent and very, very veteran presence couldn't sustain themselves, and the Pirates plummeted in to their twentieth consecutive losing season. This motif is getting very old for Pittsburgh fans.

Manager Clint Hurdle's face basically says it all.
The way Pirates GM Neal Huntington has responded to this record of prolonged failure is a little perplexing to me.  The only legitimate gold that his draft board has yielded that's been an impactful big league presence is Andrew McCutcheon. There are a few good-ish players (Neil Walker, maybe Pedro Alvarez) who could contribute to a solid run, but they are weighed down by a massive body of mediocrity. Walker hitting slightly above average isn't going to matter if Michael McHenry or Garrett Jones is expected to knock him in. This puts Huntington in an extremely awkward, difficult-to-apply-blame-to position.  Building the right chemistry between young and developing talent and influential veteran presence in an environment where losing is becoming an inexcusably tired theme is a frustrating and extremely difficult one, especially when you're given extreme budgetary constraints.

New Pirates catcher Russell Martin,
PIRATED from the Yankees. Har har.
Sadly, it looks like the Bucs strategy isn't going to shift too far off course from 2012 to 2013. The tactic of adding old, former Yankees who are past their prime has repeated itself in the signing of backstop Russell Martin.  Martin signed a 2 year $17MM contract after posting a pretty modest .211/.311/.403 line last year in the Bronx. The signing caused a little bit of commotion in the world, not because it was particularly intelligent per se, but because the Pirates outbid the Yankees for a player. Martin does figure to be an upgrade over Rod Barajas, but to what end?  Replacing one mediocre, aging backstop with a slightly better but much more expensive one enhance a team like the Pirates in to competitive relevance.

Notorious bathroom slipper, Francisco Liriano
Russell Martin may not be the only major signing by the Bucs. The signing of Francisco Liriano was all but official until the requisite physical necessary for completing a player's signing revealed a broken arm. Apparently Liriano damaged his non-throwing arm in a "bathroom fall", an injury claim as vague as it is suspiciously silly. Whether or not the injury happened by it's claimed cause doesn't matter, the alleged bathroom tumble has gummed up the works quite a bit. As of tonight, Liriano is still officially a free agent, but the latest reports suggest that he has agreed to a newly worded contract containing "protective language" ala Mike Napoli's new deal with Boston. What does it mean though? Adding a pitcher who hasn't posted an ERA under 5.00 in two seasons doesn't bode well for the fragile Pittsburgh roster.

The two things I've seen make sense out of the Pirates front office are the trading of Joel Hanrahan and the re-signing of Jason Grilli. Grilli will be a fine stopgap closer and ultimately a decent trade chip if the  Pirates do what I expect, which is implode again and again for a few more years until the talent they still have in the minors continues to develop. Their isn't really anyone to blame for this, and Pirates fans owe it to their General Manager to be patient for a few more years. Losing has been such a constant for the Pirates that Neal Huntington couldn't help but inherit a losing team. Trading their all-star closer is a conscientious move proving that an attempt is being made, despite limited resources, to right the ship in Pittsburgh.

Pirates prospect Jameson Taillon
The other moves have been or minuscule importance. Trading Chris Resop for Zach Thornton and signing Brad Hawpe isn't going to bring a ring to PNC Park. The Pirates won't taste victory in the NL Central as long as the Cardinals and Brewers are relatively competent and the Reds are in powerhouse mode. All pessimism aside, their farm system provides things to be optimistic about.  Players like Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole will be major league ready while Andrew McCutchen is still an elite player, and when that time comes, the Pirates will be a force.

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

SIGNED! Delmon Young

One Year $750K to the Phillies.
Uuuuuughhhhh...yikes. Ok I really don't know what's going on in Philadelphia. As I established in my offseason review, the Philadelphia Phillies are an aging franchise who seem unwilling to give up the ghost. I really don't think Delmon Young is going to be some sort of game changer in Philadelphia, but I can see some logic in his contract being used as a trade chip down the line. Young could have made a lot more money but his burdensome behavioral track record made him arguably a "bargain"depending on how you look at it. I personally don't really want guys who get intoxicated and shout anti-Semetic slurs at passerby no matter how much of a bargain they are, so this signing doesn't impress me. So yep, I guess this one makes sense, assuming you're capable of overlooking and/or taking advantage of really unlikeable character traits in a player and inflicting that on the rest of your clubhouse. Not for me.

Monday, January 21, 2013

Offseason Review: The Milwaukee Brewers

Going in to the 2012 season the Milwaukee Brewers were expected to viable contenders to repeat as NL Central Champions. There was a lot of concern as to how things would flow without Prince Fielder  holding down first base; but with Braun, Hart, Weeks, an emerging Lucroy and the addition of slugging third baseman Aramis Ramirez, offense wasn't too much of a worry. It was also easy to look at the Crew's bullpen as a major advantage given John Axford's lights out performance in 2011 and a returning Francisco Rodriguez. With the starting rotation the same as it was the year prior, it would basically take a major meltdown for the Brewers to not be serious contenders in their division. That's exactly what happened.

Rickie Weeks, an all-star in 2011, started the season in a slump that carried through almost the entire season. Randy Wolf performed with a degree of mediocrity that saw his release near season's end. The bullpen absolutely erupted, posting an MLB worst 4.66 ERA and 29 blown saves. Axford temporarily lost his closing role to Jim Henderson. K-Rod's heyday looked like a distant memory as well, proving to be absolutely hittable, posting career worst 4.38 ERA. The Crew did have a late season surge of relative competence but it proved too little too late, and they lost their Wild Card hopes to their nemesis Cardinals.

LHP Tom Gorzelanny with his pitching face
It would seem obvious given the Brewers absolutely blundering 2012 that a drastic overhaul would be in order. Things seemed headed that way, as the Brewers made the moves to non-tender or release a huge chunk of their bullpen. Kameron Loe, Manny Parra, Tim Dillard,  and Francisco Rodriguez are all relievers who are going to be wearing different uniforms next season. Taking their place will be former Washington Nationals LHP's Mike Gonzalez and Tom Gorzelanny, and sinkerballer Burke Badenhop who was acquired from the Rays for prospect Raul Mondesi Jr. All of these moves make a lot of sense for the Brewers. Gorzelanny is effectively Manny Parra with way higher pitchability, and the same could be same of Badenhop as a more effective Loe. Mike Gonzalez has closing experience and fits in as a set up man, back up for Axford if he breaks down again, and is generally a decent veteran arm.

The bullpen overhaul is essentially complete, so problem solved, right? Not even close. After 2012 saw the release of Randy Wolf, trading of Zack Greinke and free agency of Shaun Marcum, the Brewers starting rotation was stripped. The only definite starter left is Yovani Gallardo, followed by a slew of young talent competing for various slots. Also indefinite and by no means complete is the Brewers' bench. It could be said that this type of inaction is a reasonable way to cut down on spending that hasn't resulted in a championship, but it could also be said that the Brewers front office is behaving like they completely oblivious to the fact that they have a window of potential right now that isn't getting the support it needs to stay propped open. I abide by the latter notion.

Is the untested Michael Fiers up for the challenge
of a full year in the bigs? 
Ryan Braun is maybe the best all around outfielder in baseball right now. The 2011 MVP has several good years in front of him, but his contributions as an elite five-tool player have a logical deadline. Why Doug Melvin is wasting any of his years putting anything besides the best possible team together and building it around Braun is completely beyond me.  It wouldn't have broken the bank to sign a pitcher like Dan Haren just in case Mark Rogers does what he always does and gets injured. It wouldn't have sank the team to sign Sean Burnett or Koji Uehara in case the bullpen's ailments weren't a fluke last year. Now that Corey Hart is injured Mat Gamel is going to get another chance as a full time first basemen for the Crew, but he missed almost all of last year with a serious knee injury, you'd some depth there may be worth looking in to.

Just because Milwaukee's pen was the biggest problem Milwaukee faced last year doesn't mean that it's the only hole they should fill. I know that there are constraints that come with being a middle market team and that you can't acquire every major talent free agent that comes around, but that's not what it would take to make the Brewers viable contenders in 2013. The Brewers are probably going to be good, but extremely fragile. If one young arm gets injured or under-performs, what are they going to do to replace them? Given Milwaukee's pretty modest depth the only resource they could have tapped in to enhance their armory is the free agent market, and every signing that goes elsewhere makes that pool a little thinner.

GM Doug Melvin's Ron Swanson lookin' ass.
I think it's going to be the lack of depth that pushes the Brewers out of contention in 2013. Milwaukee is a really good team, but a really thin and inexperienced team with a lot that can go wrong. Their is a minute chance that absolutely everyone stays healthy, something I've never seen from any team ever, and they eek their way in to a wild card spot. There is a much much much much greater chance that the Brewers experiment with a rotation built almost entirely on inexperience and a limited bench proves futile, the Crew loses a whole bunch of games in frustrating fashion, and a rebuilding era is reigned in prematurely in Miller Park. I think the Brewers finish with a similar record as they did last year and miss the play offs again.