Offseason Review: the Houston Astros

From riches to rags: Chris Carter was traded from the 2013
AL West champs to the inevitably doomed Astros

There are plenty of scandals and controversies talked about in the baseball world.  Steroids, the one game playoffs, the Hall of Fame and so on.  The Houston Astros may have set a precedent by being the first team ever to catch flack for intentionally being bad. After trading Jed Lowrie to the A's for a set of prospects and DH/1B Chris Carter, the Astros total salary shrank to just over $14.5MM dollars, which for comparison's sake is $2.5MM less than Derek Jeter will make in 2013.  Suffice to say the expectations for the Astros first year as an american league team are dismal.

That being said, the overhaul needed for the Astros to find their way back in to relevance needed to be so thorough that the front office essentially needed to dismantle and rebuild their whole lineup and rotation in piecemeal fashion.  2013 is essentially locked down as awful for Houston, and that's ok.  The Astros got the first overall pick in 2012, will again in 2013 and if all goes as expected this season, they will take the first pick in 2014 as well.  Who does this remind you of? How long ago was it that the Washington Nationals were considered a joke?  Keeping that logic in mind, the Astros are doing what they need to do.  It's going to be ugly, but it's going to help.

Dark Horse: Carlos Gomez

Once considered a five-tool player and hot prospect for the New York Mets, Carlos Gomez became expendable when the Twins opted to trade Johan Santana. Gomez played two seasons with the Twins, exhibiting flashes of power and defensive excellence, but the emergence of Denard Span found Gomez again on the trading block.  Shortly after the conclusion of the 2009 season Gomez was traded to Milwaukee Brewers for shortstop J.J. Hardy.  Despite his unbelievable speed and excellent defensive prowess, Gomez' struggles with plate discipline made him difficult to keep in the lineup.

During the 2012 season Norichika Aoki became the Brewers full-time right fielder and Gomez' platoon parter Nyjer Morgan had a steep drop in production.  This set of circumstances finally allowed Gomez a full-time position in center, where he was primed to flourish.  The season ended with Carlos Gomez posting a .260/.305/.463 line with a career high in stolen bases with 37 and home runs with 19, doubling his previous career high.  Carlos Gomez seems to be putting it all together just in time to enter his walk year; and with a locked down full-time position in Milwaukee it will be interesting to see what kind of money he's trying to earn next year.

Offseason Review: The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Does having Josh Hamilton make the Angels the most
intimidating team in baseball right now?

After last years crazy spending spree and late season acquisition of 2009 Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke didn't yield even a playoff berth, the Angels decided that the best course of action was not to switch gears, but to pile it on.  On December 13th the Angels came out of nowhere to sign Josh Hamilton to a 5-year $125MM deal.  This move effectively makes Los Angeles not only easily the most potent offensive team in their division, but arguably in baseball, behind perhaps the Detroit Tigers.  It also takes Josh Hamilton out of the lineup for the division rival Texas Rangers and reunites him with former Ranger C.J. Wilson, who lives a sober lifestyle, which gives Hamilton some of the company and support he needs to succeed. The move to sign Hamilton doesn't insure the Angels for anything, however.  While Hamilton has proven year in and year out that his presence at the plate is nothing to be trifled with, he has also proven to be less than durable. Looking at his last four seasons could give an Angels fan something to be worried about.

Games Played

2012: 148

2011: 121

2010: 133

2009: 89

Add five years on to that logic and you can consider any investment a gamble, let alone a $125MM one.  Still, assuming Hamilton will be mostly healthy and putting him in the same lineup as Albert Pujols and phenom Mike Trout is going to be terrifying for anyone who has the misfortune of pitching to them.

Joe Blanton takes his talents to Angel Stadium in 2013

Hamilton wasn't the only move by the Angels this offseason.  After letting Dan Haren walk (which, in my opinion was a dumb move) and trading Ervin Santana to the Royals, the Angels needed to revamp their rotation. They traded good young closer Jordan Walden to the Braves for righty Tommy Hanson. Not needing anyone else to DH or play first, the Angels traded Kendrys Morales to the Mariners for southpaw Jason Vargas on December 19th. Also added by way of free agency is veteran righty Joe Blanton who figures to be the four or five guy depending on where Vargas slots in.  The bullpen also got a huge boost with the additions of LHP Sean Burnett and righty Ryan Madson, who missed all of 2012 with Tommy John surgery, but was lights out as a closer for the Phillies in 2011.

All these moves combined make the Angels almost look like a "new look" team, and if everything flows together they have the possibility to win it all.  That being said, it's important to be critical and look at their faults.  Other than Jered Weaver they don't have any bonafide, game-changing pitching. Players like Vargas and Blanton have a strong history of being durable workhorses, but they also both host career ERA's above four.  The offense obviously has the ability to carry with it crushing potency; but it's important for the Angels to remember the age, injury and ego have derailed teams in the past.  If everyone can stay healthy, humble and focused the Angels are a sure-shot for the playoffs. That being said, if big heads and old bodies get in the way manager Mike Scioscia will be looking for a job.

Dark Horse: Jordan Pacheco

This is a new segment of the Codger where I hope to shine some light on some players who aren't necessarily getting the attention I think they deserve.  "Dark Horse" articles will basically be Short write-ups on players like Jordan Pacheco or Brandon Morrow, who have high ceilings and impressive numbers but are overshadowed by flashier players.

The young and versatile Pacheco

In the midst of the Rockies dismal 2012 campaign, the media focus was largely for Colorado's team was largely on the injured Tulowitzki and the revolutionary but largely ineffective pitching strategy being employed by Rockies management.  In the background, 27 year old Jordan Pacheco put up huge numbers.  A lot of eyes were focused on young players like Bryce Harper and Mike Trout putting up absolutely monstrous numbers, leaving Pacheco in a realm of relative anonymity.  Without the incentives of a hope for the postseason or the limelight, Jordan Pacheco hit .309, finishing in the top five of the NL batting race and becoming the first NL rookie to do so since 1974.  What's more is that Pacheco is an extremely versatile infielder.  Aside from being a serviceable at first and third, he's also working to develop as a catcher.  If Jordan Pacheco can work on getting on base just a bit more, I believe he has All Star potential.

TRADED! Mike Carp

To the Red Sox for a PTBNL

After being made expendable via the Michael Morse acquistion, the Mariner's shipped Mike Carp off to Boston.  Carp posted a .255/.327/.413 line over four seasons with the Seattle Mariners, hitting 18 home runs in just over 600 plate appearances.  While the Boston Red Sox have relatively steep depth at first base, this acquisition makes sense for them.  First off, while Carp's numbers are modest, he has proven especially effective against left handed pitching, hitting a solid .300.  Secondly, Carp was acquired for very little.  The Red Sox can obviously afford to eat his contract if he tanks, and any sort of prospect that could be acquired for Carp is almost guaranteed to have little Major League potential.

Finally, and perhaps most interestingly for the rest of baseball, acquiring Mike Carp makes other Sox players expendable.  That relative interest I mentioned in Carp earlier in the article, belongs to teams like the Astros, Brewers and Twins; which suggests that teams are looking for a good bench bat or first basemen.  The Red Sox signed Lyle Overbay only a few weeks ago in hopes of securing some first base/DH security, but with Carp joining the team Overbay may become disposable.  The Red Sox, recognizing these teams desire for first basemen, could ask a higher-than-regular piece for a player like Overbay.  The Brewers recently lost Mat Gamel to a torn ACL and are waiting for Corey Hart to return from surgery, which makes them a hot target.  The Crew targeted Overbay before he agreed to terms with Boston, but he opted for the American League team so as to get more at bats via the designated hitter role.  With Gamel out, Milwaukee could reasonably be in a position of relative desperation and be forced to send a low-level prospect out in exchange for Overbay's season, effectively paying a price for their own inability to pull the trigger when he was a free agent. 

Gamel Out for 2013 and the Brewers Without a Paddle

This poor guy...

There is "risky"; an adjective used to describe someone gambling something they rely on in order to attain a high reward, and then there is short-sighted, and that's what the Brewers front office is. Mat Gamel's re-torn ACL spells the end of his 2013 season, which hasn't even started yet. Most teams would be panicking if they lost their projected opening day first basemen about four and a half weeks before opening day, and Milwaukee has lost both of theirs, and still nothing.  

I can't understand where it's coming from, but some how the Brewers front office are keeping their cool in the face of their own ineptitude.  If you think I'm wrong, let's take a second to examine the alternatives to Gamel.

1). Corey Hart

Hart isn't technically a replacement considering Gamel was his backup, but since he's injured too let's start here. After spending the majority of his major career in right field, Hart took over first base in 2012 after Gamel's first ACL tear put him out for the remainder of the season. Hart was injured this offseason (something that's becoming an alarming theme for him) and needed arthroscopic surgery effectively disabling him for 3-4 months.  More alarming than Hart's less-than-durable reputation is the fact that second opinion Hart pursued in hopes of revealing a less serious injury actually resulted in a call for season-ending microfracture surgery.  While Hart appears ahead of schedule in terms of healing, he still runs the risk of carrying a hidden, serious injury; and the Brewers still don't have a legitimate first basemen in case that happens.

2.) Taylor Green

.184/.265/.340.  What else do I need to say? This guy has had plenty of opportunities (117 plate appearances in 2012) to flash what he could be in the majors the way that he did in the minors but it just didn't look put together at all.  Even at his best I don't see Green coming close to filling in 

Gamel's shoes, let alone Hart's.

3.) Bobby Crosby

The 2004 AL Rookie Of The Year hasn't played Major League Baseball since 2010. The reason? After his rookie campaign (which by ROY standards was a modest one) he declined steeply and was eventually deemed unworthy of a sign until the Brewers inked a minor league deal with him this offseason. Decent bench presence? Sure, but not an every day MLB player. If you're tempted to use the ROY accolade in his defense at all, I am gonna play the Chris Coghlan card.

4.) Hunter Morris

2012 Southern League MVP Hunter Morris has had approximately zero big league plate appearances.  While his development is impressive, it indicates next to nothing about his readiness to play in the bigs.  Even suggesting that Morris could substitute as an every day first basemen for as long as it takes for Hart to get healthy completely ignores the history of prospects who are rushed to the majors.  This doesn't take in to account the fact that it's pretty asinine of a team to start the arbitration clock before necessary. Best case scenario: Morris comes up and surprises everyone and we have a slightly more fun first basemen to watch for a month. The worst?  He rushes to be major league ready and we waste really good potential, all because we don't have a back up.

5.) Alex Gonzalez or Martin Maldonado

The reason I'm bracketing these two together is that they are both big league players who are ready to play on opening day, but not first basemen.  The argument could be made that Maldonado would be a good first basemen because he's had a very small history with that position at a big league level. It could also be argued that Gonzalez may be a good fit their because he's an aging shortstop with a big body who could quickly learn and even potentially thrive at first.  I'm going to go ahead and make the argument that either call is a totally stupid idea.  Building depth in one department creates a void in the other. Our lack of depth at short is exactly WHY we re-signed Gonzalez. 

Realistically, that's it, that's what Milwaukee's working with.  Why didn't the Brewers make moves to provide legitimate depth? I can't answer that question. It would be one thing if Adam Dunn and Prince Fielder were the only two free agent first basemen on the market, then the logic would lay in finance. That is not the case here. Casey Kotchman just signed a minor league deal with the Marlins, Lyle Overbay was wooed by the Red Sox after Milwaukee put in a weak offer for him, and perhaps most ridiculously is that the Brewers let Travis Ishikawa walk after being a reliable guy off the bench last year. These are NOT moves that would break the bank, but they are moves that allow a team to stay afloat in case the inevitable happens and a player gets hurt.  This is a very rough way to start a season.

Offseason Review: The San Diego Padres

Chase Headley: Future team Captain?

The Padres are doing exactly what they need to do, which is to say "absolutely nothing."  San Diego is well aware of the fact that they aren't really in a position to contend in the NL West right now, so they are biding their time. Spare re-signing Jason Marquis and bringing in veteran righty Freddy Garcia, there hasn't been much at all coming out of the Padres camp.  Internally, they have been smart. Bud Black has had relative success considering the relatively modest talent he's had to work with, so his options were picked up through 2015.

One important development is San Diego's interest in extending third basemen Chase Headley. Headley put up numbers that threw him in to the back end of the MVP discussion in 2012 and has the youth and reputation to repeat those numbers for several more years.  In an era of baseball where even lower budget teams are doing what they can to retain their homegrown stars (ie: the Rays extending Evan Longoria) extending Headley may be a good idea.  If he sustains his efforts he'll be an above average starting third basemen, but if he continues to improve he'll be bordering on superstar status.

Other than that, the Pads have been quiet, and reasonably so. San Francisco just won the World Series and Los Angeles is baring their gold plated fangs, so the theme at Petco Park is "rebuild, rebuild, rebuild."  Anything else would be unreasonable. The Padres are going to finish second last in their division, but several games ahead of the miserable Rockies.